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Analyse Des Risques et Aide à la Décision pour l’Amélioration de la Résilience des Réseaux Techniques Urbains Franciliens Face aux Crues

Abstract : Urban technical networks are assets that are critical for the proper functioning and the resilience of territories. However, these networks present different vulnerabilities to natural and man-made hazards, which can cause their damage and the interruption of the urban service they provide. These vulnerabilities can lead to damages or malfunctions that are intuitively unpredictable and more severe than the initial impact of a hazard (cascading failures).In the case of Ile-de-France, the vulnerability of networks to flooding is a major issue of risk and territorial resilience. There are many potential direct impacts of floods on infrastructures and complex interdependencies between infrastructures, networks and services. In order to provide managers with the appropriate tools to address these issues, this research aims to"develop a relevant methodological approach for reducing the vulnerability of these networks to flooding". This methodological approach is intended to assist Ile-de-France' networks operators in the processes of identifying, characterizing, quantifying and controlling the risks induced by the various forms of their networks' vulnerabilities.Our methodological approach is structured mainly according to two axes: risk quantification and multicriteria optimization of the allocation of risk control measures. It mobilizes different methods specific to risk analysis, integration of expertise and quantification of uncertainties, multi-criteria decision support and mathematical optimization, in order to effectively plan measures for reducing networks vulnerabilities. Our work includes three main steps:• The development of a deterministic approach for analyzing the vulnerabilities of urban technical networks. This approach allows the identification and the formalization of a network's failure modes, when exposed to floods. It also allows the quantification of the individual criticality of each component in the possible failure scenarios". The development of a reliabilistic approach for the analysis of networks vulnerabilities, in complement to the deterministic approach. It allows taking into account the likelihood of the identified failure modes and the construction of reliability indicators to evaluate the criticality of a network's components under flood conditions.• The construction of a decision support tool for optimizing the process of mitigating networks' vulnerabilities to flooding. This tool mobilizes the results of both the deterministic and the reliabilistic approaches for the assessment of the global criticality of each component of a network. It also allows to assist a network’s operator in developing optimal strategies for reducing vulnerabilities based on the available budgets.The validity of our approach is demonstrated in this research, through application chapters dedicated to the analysis of an urban railway network facing flood risk. Examples of simple applications on other networks are also provided in the different parts of the thesis.
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https://hal-upec-upem.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-03722326
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Submitted on : Wednesday, July 13, 2022 - 12:40:50 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, August 2, 2022 - 4:33:46 AM

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  • HAL Id : tel-03722326, version 1

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Anas Dabaj. Analyse Des Risques et Aide à la Décision pour l’Amélioration de la Résilience des Réseaux Techniques Urbains Franciliens Face aux Crues. Architecture, aménagement de l'espace. Université G. Eiffel, 2021. Français. ⟨tel-03722326⟩

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