Identification of technology development trends based on subject–action–object analysis: The case of dye-sensitized solar cells
Résumé
Identification of technology development trends is essential for supporting decision-makers in forecasting and identifying related innovation activities as well the industrial growth. In difference of the traditional technology development trends based on SAO, which usually predicting the trend by finding key problems and technologies used to resolve them, the method proposed in this paper allows to identify what industry goal can be achieved by the interaction between the problems and technologies, the detailed paths to achieve it and the key countries which can encourage the trend by engaging technological innovation scenarios. This method builds a technology roadmapping (TRM) with seven layers based on Subject-Action-Object (SAO) analysis, which is composed by material, technology, influencing factor, component, product, goal and application area. It is a combination of vertical and horizontal TRM and has the advantages of both of them. Comparing with the existing technology roadmapping, this method indicates not only the development paths of the key technologies but also those of them that are most opportune to resolve the specific problem and achieve the particular industry goal. Furthermore, with the intention to identify the key countries supporting the technological development, this method sets three indicators acting as the discriminating standards. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the method, this paper presents a case study of literature related to dye-sensitized solar cells. The result reveals the industry goal and trends in the field of DSSCs, in addition, it can identify the detail approach of the trends and the key countries to support it.