The domino effect and integrated probabilistic approaches for risk analysis

Q. B. Nguyen (1) , Ahmed Mebarki (1) , Frédéric Mercier (2) , Ramdane Ami Saada (1) , M. Reimeringer (2)

1 LaM - Laboratoire de Mécanique
2 INERIS - Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques

The paper develops a probabilistic approach in order to deal with domino effects that may occur in industrial facilities : an explosion or accident may generate various sets of projectiles that may impact other existing facilities (tanks under high-pressure, etc) and may generate other sets of projectiles and so on. Three main parts are considered : 1- Source term : for the first set of generated projectiles, probabilistic distributions are considered for the number, masses, velocities, departure angles, geometrical form, dimensions, and constitutive materials properties. The authors have collected existing models from the literature. 2- Target term : for the set of impacted targets, probabilistic distributions are considered for the number of impacting projectiles, velocities, incidence angles and energy at impact, constitutive materials properties, dimensions of the impacted targets, and projectiles penetration depths into the targets. In this paper, new models for the impact are proposed to calculate the penetration depth after impact : case of cylindrical rods impacting rectangular plates, both are metal made. The theoretical results are compared to the experimental data (4 data sets) collected from the literature with the following features : projectiles mass ranging from 0.1g up to 250 kg, projectiles velocity ranging from 10 m/s up to 2100 m/s, projectiles diameters ranging from 1.5 mm up to 90 mm, target strength ranging from 300 MPa up to 1400 MPa and incidence angles ranging from 0 degree up to 70 degrees. 3- Domino effect term : evaluation of the risks of second set of explosions that may take place in the impacted components. Monte Carlo simulations are used in order to calculate the different probabilities : probability of impact, distribution of the penetration depth and probability of domino effect.

Mots clés: DOMINO EFFECT; INDUSTRIAL EXPLOSIONS ACCIDENT; MECHANICAL IMPACT; TANKS; PROJECTILE; PENETRATION; PERFORATION; RISK; RELIABILIRY; PROBABILISTIC METHODS

Domaines: Modélisation et simulation; Matériaux; Mécanique [physics.med-ph]

Q. B. Nguyen, Ahmed Mebarki, Frédéric Mercier, Ramdane Ami Saada, M. Reimeringer. The domino effect and integrated probabilistic approaches for risk analysis. Eight International Conference on Computational Structures Technology, Sep 2006, Las Palmas, Spain. pp.27-34. ⟨hal-00719771⟩