Reliability analysis of a satellite structure with a parametric and a non-parametric probabilistic model

Abstract : The reliability of a satellite structure subjected to harmonic base excitation in the low frequency range is analyzed with respect to the exceedance of critical frequency response thresholds. Both a parametric model of uncertainties and a more recently introduced non-parametric model are used to analyze the reliability, where the latter model in the present analysis captures the model uncertainties. With both models, the probability of exceedance of given acceleration thresholds is estimated using Monte-Carlo simulation. To reduce the computational cost of the parametric model, a suitable meta-model is used instead. The results indicate that for low levels of uncertainty in the damping, the non-parametric model provides significantly more pessimistic - and hence conservative - predictions about the exceedance probabilities. For high levels of damping uncertainty the opposite is the case.