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The random spread model

Abstract : The paper proposes the new stochastic model of a Random Spread for describing the spatial propagation of sequential events such as forest fires. A Random Spread is double Markov chain, whose each step is a (random) set operator $ eta $ combining a Cox process with a Boolean random closed set. Under iteration, operator $ eta $ provides the time evolution of the Random Spread, which turns out to be a birth-and-death process. Average sizes, and the probabilities of extinction are derived. The random spread model was applied to the analysis of the fires that occurred in the State of Selangor (Malaysia) from 2000 to 2004. It was able to predict all places where burnt scars actually occurred, which is a strongly significant verification.
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Contributor : Jean Serra <>
Submitted on : Monday, September 12, 2011 - 10:56:37 AM
Last modification on : Wednesday, February 26, 2020 - 7:06:05 PM


  • HAL Id : hal-00622189, version 1


Jean Serra. The random spread model. International Symposium on Mathematical Morphology - International Symposium on Mathematical Morphology'07, 8th International Symposium, Proceedings, 2007, France. pp.87-98. ⟨hal-00622189⟩



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